 |
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 |
| Copyright 2009 Instividual Investor |
TM
| Contact Us |
Instividual Investor goes beyond the headlines and provides sophisticated investors with actionable investment insight. Founded by investment manager Brian Kelly, Instividual Investor has one simple goal - bring high quality insight to the informed investor. |
Greece Hires Lazard - Is a Debt Restructuring Next? 5.4.10 - Brian Kelly
As the markets approach crisis, it has been reported that Greece has hired Lazard to give it financial
advice. More
Spain to Cut Solar Subsidies? Our Play - 5.3.10 - Brian Kelly - Premium
This week Germany is expected to vote on solar subsidy cuts, as well, Spain and Italy are also expected to
cut subsidies. More
Is A Moody's Downgrade of Greece the Next Catalyst for a Lower Euro? - 5.3.10 Brian Kelly
As an interesting sidebar to the weekend deal, the ECB dropped its ratings threshold for Greek debt - this
is important because a ratings cut from Moody's could have shut Greek banks access to ECB funding. More
Earnings...Check! Free Government Money...Check! So Why No Rally? - 4.29.10 Brian Kelly
We have been trading the US equity markets with one eye on the Fed - as long as real interest rates are
negative the bull party should continue...yesterday the Fed refilled the punch bowl. More
Could Germany Withdraw from Eurozone? - 4.28.10 Brian Kelly
In our view, the EU has waited too long to resolve the Greek debt crisis and now the problems are
spreading. In light of the spreading contagion we shall look today at a Black Swan event that may indeed
becoming more probable. More
Are US Equities Fiddling As the World Burns? - 4.27.10 Brian Kelly
In our view, the EU (read: Germany) is making a huge tactical error by dragging its feet on aid for Greece.
This is not about Greece, this is about the sustainability of the Eurozone. The problem with the delay is
that now Portugal is exposed to market forces and without an bailout plan for Greece, the other PIIGS will
fall. More
Playing the Online Gaming Boom in China - 4.26.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
World of Warcraft is adding to this company's bottom line. More
S&P 500 1230 Target Looks Attainable - 4.23.10 Brian Kelly
Greece could get the equity market moving. More
Durable Goods Suggest Employment Pickup - How We are Playing - 4.23.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
Capex spending leads hiring, we are getting ready. More
Media General Up 45% in 3 Weeks! - Taking Profits - 4/21/10 Brian Kelly
At the end of March we alerted our premium subscribers to a Supreme Court decision that would have a
significant impact on local media companies. In January, the Supreme Court ruled that corporations could
spend directly on political advertising. Prior to this ruling, corporations were restricted from direct
spending. More
Stericycle (SRCL)- Buy, Sell or Hold?- 4/21/10 Brian Kelly - Premium
Healthcare legislation could impact this company. More
Gold Up on Inflation Fears - Justified? - 4/20/10 Brian Kelly
We have opined that the response to the financial crisis has placed the global economy into the greatest
Keynesian experiment since the Great Depression. The knock on Keynes has always been that his policies
are inflationary - to this Keynes may actually agree. The critical question is whether inflation can be
controlled - history suggests it can, but only with a harsh remedies. More
Barron's Bullish on CME, Us...Not So Much - 4.19.10 Brian Kelly
Barron's misses CME's Achilles Heal. More.
How We are Playing the Launch of Chinese Stock Index Futures - 4.18.10 Brian Kelly -Premium
The Chinese government has just past three milestones toward the goal of becoming the world's leading
financial center by 2020. More.
Who's Winning in Healthcare? - 4.15.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
We have been under-weight health care due lack of clarity over the new legislation. While the legislation
has passed the ultimate impact is yet unknown - making for a less than hospitable investment environment.
Nonetheless, we have found a compelling story and value in the sector. More
Greek Debt Gets Safer with Higher Rates - 4,15.19 Brian Kelly
Paradoxically, the higher rates go the safer the debt...More
How We are Playing Home Builders Ahead of Friday's Data - 4.14.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
Leading indicators suggest a Friday surprise More
Could A Yuan Revaluation Be Positive for the Dollar? 4.14.10 Brian Kelly
In Asian trading the MAS revalued the Singapore Dollar (SGD) by adjusting the trading band to more
accurately reflect the nominal effective exchange rate. For those who are not forex uber-geeks - what this
means is GDP growth in Singapore is growing so fast that inflation is becoming a problem and therefore
the currency was revalued to make imports cheaper. More
Google is a Bargain Ahead of Earnings
Brian Kelly guest blog for CNBC. More
Falling Rates Give Homebuilders Curb Appeal
Last week for our premium subscribers we outlined the sea change that is developing in US interest rates.
The consensus view is that interest rates are destined to go up - not surprisingly we take a different view.
Greece, the Yuan, and investors reaching for yield in the mortgage market are all conspiring to push rates
lower. The 4% level on 10 Year Treasuries is a congestion zone dating all the way back to 2004. The
recent sharp rise in bond prices and fall in yields could be the beginning of a bull run in bond prices that
could take yields down to 3.30%. More
Game On! - Jobs Growth in Goldilocks Range
The US employment report nailed the Goldilocks range – now what? Our biggest concern was the hand-off
from public to private spending would be short circuited by lackluster job growth. To be sure, the
employment report did not show a robust recovery, but it was good enough to keep the momentum going
and the Fed on the gas. More
Swap Spreads Negative...Time to Buy Private Equity?
These are the trading days that we live for at Kanundrum Capital – macro news is making waves in
currency and fixed income markets, but the equity markets have yet to meaningfully respond. We have
spent considerable effort documenting the flaws in the European “bailout” plan and today the downgrade
of Portugal finds us happily short EURUSD. But what about that free money we promised in the headline –
is this just a bait-and-switch…au contraire mon fraire. More
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) Estimates Could be on the Low End - Premium
NWL not only represents a cash flow turn around story, but management guidance is based on flat GDP
growth. More (This article requires a subscription)
Is the Short Euro Trade Over? Nope!
Monday evening on Fast Money, we were asked if the short Euro trade was over – our answer was a
definitive…NO! The primary driver of our confidence is the flawed structure of the current plan (if ‘no
action’ can be called a plan) and the flawed structure within the Eurozone. The two flaws are a lack of an
explicit contingent financing plan and the inability of the EU to enforce such a plan. These two flaws are
interacting with each other to create a vicious downward spiral. More
Who Will Profit from the Coming Political Ads - Premium
A US Supreme court ruling in January could unleash unchecked political ad spending benefiting a few local
media companies. More (This article requires a subscription)
Hellenic Hoopla and the Three Flaws
We have opined, perhaps incessantly, that the Greek ‘bailout’ is flawed – beyond the typical political
hostility, the structure of the plan has two weak links: More
As the markets approach crisis, it has been reported that Greece has hired Lazard to give it financial
advice. More
Spain to Cut Solar Subsidies? Our Play - 5.3.10 - Brian Kelly - Premium
This week Germany is expected to vote on solar subsidy cuts, as well, Spain and Italy are also expected to
cut subsidies. More
Is A Moody's Downgrade of Greece the Next Catalyst for a Lower Euro? - 5.3.10 Brian Kelly
As an interesting sidebar to the weekend deal, the ECB dropped its ratings threshold for Greek debt - this
is important because a ratings cut from Moody's could have shut Greek banks access to ECB funding. More
Earnings...Check! Free Government Money...Check! So Why No Rally? - 4.29.10 Brian Kelly
We have been trading the US equity markets with one eye on the Fed - as long as real interest rates are
negative the bull party should continue...yesterday the Fed refilled the punch bowl. More
Could Germany Withdraw from Eurozone? - 4.28.10 Brian Kelly
In our view, the EU has waited too long to resolve the Greek debt crisis and now the problems are
spreading. In light of the spreading contagion we shall look today at a Black Swan event that may indeed
becoming more probable. More
Are US Equities Fiddling As the World Burns? - 4.27.10 Brian Kelly
In our view, the EU (read: Germany) is making a huge tactical error by dragging its feet on aid for Greece.
This is not about Greece, this is about the sustainability of the Eurozone. The problem with the delay is
that now Portugal is exposed to market forces and without an bailout plan for Greece, the other PIIGS will
fall. More
Playing the Online Gaming Boom in China - 4.26.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
World of Warcraft is adding to this company's bottom line. More
S&P 500 1230 Target Looks Attainable - 4.23.10 Brian Kelly
Greece could get the equity market moving. More
Durable Goods Suggest Employment Pickup - How We are Playing - 4.23.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
Capex spending leads hiring, we are getting ready. More
Media General Up 45% in 3 Weeks! - Taking Profits - 4/21/10 Brian Kelly
At the end of March we alerted our premium subscribers to a Supreme Court decision that would have a
significant impact on local media companies. In January, the Supreme Court ruled that corporations could
spend directly on political advertising. Prior to this ruling, corporations were restricted from direct
spending. More
Stericycle (SRCL)- Buy, Sell or Hold?- 4/21/10 Brian Kelly - Premium
Healthcare legislation could impact this company. More
Gold Up on Inflation Fears - Justified? - 4/20/10 Brian Kelly
We have opined that the response to the financial crisis has placed the global economy into the greatest
Keynesian experiment since the Great Depression. The knock on Keynes has always been that his policies
are inflationary - to this Keynes may actually agree. The critical question is whether inflation can be
controlled - history suggests it can, but only with a harsh remedies. More
Barron's Bullish on CME, Us...Not So Much - 4.19.10 Brian Kelly
Barron's misses CME's Achilles Heal. More.
How We are Playing the Launch of Chinese Stock Index Futures - 4.18.10 Brian Kelly -Premium
The Chinese government has just past three milestones toward the goal of becoming the world's leading
financial center by 2020. More.
Who's Winning in Healthcare? - 4.15.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
We have been under-weight health care due lack of clarity over the new legislation. While the legislation
has passed the ultimate impact is yet unknown - making for a less than hospitable investment environment.
Nonetheless, we have found a compelling story and value in the sector. More
Greek Debt Gets Safer with Higher Rates - 4,15.19 Brian Kelly
Paradoxically, the higher rates go the safer the debt...More
How We are Playing Home Builders Ahead of Friday's Data - 4.14.10 Brian Kelly - Premium
Leading indicators suggest a Friday surprise More
Could A Yuan Revaluation Be Positive for the Dollar? 4.14.10 Brian Kelly
In Asian trading the MAS revalued the Singapore Dollar (SGD) by adjusting the trading band to more
accurately reflect the nominal effective exchange rate. For those who are not forex uber-geeks - what this
means is GDP growth in Singapore is growing so fast that inflation is becoming a problem and therefore
the currency was revalued to make imports cheaper. More
Google is a Bargain Ahead of Earnings
Brian Kelly guest blog for CNBC. More
Falling Rates Give Homebuilders Curb Appeal
Last week for our premium subscribers we outlined the sea change that is developing in US interest rates.
The consensus view is that interest rates are destined to go up - not surprisingly we take a different view.
Greece, the Yuan, and investors reaching for yield in the mortgage market are all conspiring to push rates
lower. The 4% level on 10 Year Treasuries is a congestion zone dating all the way back to 2004. The
recent sharp rise in bond prices and fall in yields could be the beginning of a bull run in bond prices that
could take yields down to 3.30%. More
Game On! - Jobs Growth in Goldilocks Range
The US employment report nailed the Goldilocks range – now what? Our biggest concern was the hand-off
from public to private spending would be short circuited by lackluster job growth. To be sure, the
employment report did not show a robust recovery, but it was good enough to keep the momentum going
and the Fed on the gas. More
Swap Spreads Negative...Time to Buy Private Equity?
These are the trading days that we live for at Kanundrum Capital – macro news is making waves in
currency and fixed income markets, but the equity markets have yet to meaningfully respond. We have
spent considerable effort documenting the flaws in the European “bailout” plan and today the downgrade
of Portugal finds us happily short EURUSD. But what about that free money we promised in the headline –
is this just a bait-and-switch…au contraire mon fraire. More
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) Estimates Could be on the Low End - Premium
NWL not only represents a cash flow turn around story, but management guidance is based on flat GDP
growth. More (This article requires a subscription)
Is the Short Euro Trade Over? Nope!
Monday evening on Fast Money, we were asked if the short Euro trade was over – our answer was a
definitive…NO! The primary driver of our confidence is the flawed structure of the current plan (if ‘no
action’ can be called a plan) and the flawed structure within the Eurozone. The two flaws are a lack of an
explicit contingent financing plan and the inability of the EU to enforce such a plan. These two flaws are
interacting with each other to create a vicious downward spiral. More
Who Will Profit from the Coming Political Ads - Premium
A US Supreme court ruling in January could unleash unchecked political ad spending benefiting a few local
media companies. More (This article requires a subscription)
Hellenic Hoopla and the Three Flaws
We have opined, perhaps incessantly, that the Greek ‘bailout’ is flawed – beyond the typical political
hostility, the structure of the plan has two weak links: More
Next Online Call with Brian Kelly - Wednesday April 28, 2010 - 2 pm - Premium Subscribers |
